| Common forms of Theistic bad thinking |
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| Consider Wason's "four card" problem. This is a very simple problem that illustrates how we think. Problem 1: You have four cards in front of you as you see below. Each card has a letter on one side and a number on the other side. Rule #1 states: "If a card has a "D" on one side, then it will have a "3" on the other side". Which cards and only which cards need to be turned over in order to verify rule #1? (Try to figure out the problem yourself. I'll tell you the answer later in this page). |
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| This is a very simple problem, but unfortunately it seems very difficult for most people to get correct. The typical result is that approximately 7% of the testers get the correct answer. Click here for the answer to the above problem. Some people still don't get it even after it is explained to them thoroughly. The problem is confirmation bias. We search for ways to confirm what we think instead of looking for ways to show that our thinking is wrong. In other words, we tend to think illogically. This means that when a theist has 'bought into his or her beliefs', then they will tend to pay attention to the 'clues' that tend to confirm their preconceptions and tend to downplay refuting evidence. This is complicated even more by what is called the "Jean Dixon Effect". Jean Dixon was a famous "psychic" who popularized the technique of tossing out a myriad of claims about a subject and the 'visions' that proved to be true ad hoc, the subject tended to attribute great significance to and the 'visions' that didn't apply just blurred past as noise. We are significance and pattern finders. When the 'blur' of errors are ignored and the 'hits' are given greater significance than they deserve then people become impressed that Ms. Dixon or any other "psychic" has impressive powers. This tells us something about how we think. (Badly in most cases). Problem 2: Now consider the same problem with the same rule #1 that says "If a card has a "D" on one side, then it will have a "3" on the other side". Now also consider rule #2. "If a card has a "K" on one side, then it will have a "3" on the other side". Which cards, and only which cards would you have to flip over to verify rules #1 & #2? How does this affect the cards you select (or does it?) |